How would you assess Vietnam’s trade performance so far, and what are your expectations for the second half of 2025?

Tran Thanh Hai, deputy director-general of the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Agency of Foreign Trade

The first half of 2025 has provided a relatively solid footing. Our total import-export turnover achieved double-digit growth, and the trade surplus reached around $5 billion. This reflects resilience and competitiveness in global markets despite an unpredictable global landscape.

However, there are growing uncertainties in the second half of the year. Most notably, tensions in the Middle East have escalated. This situation could cause major disruptions to global shipping routes, resulting in congestion, delays, and significantly higher freight rates. These developments will pose challenges to Vietnamese exporters in terms of both costs and market access.

One of the critical issues is the status of Vietnam–US trade negotiations, particularly regarding tariffs. Currently, we do not yet have a conclusive outcome on whether duties will be lowered, and by how much. This uncertainty places additional pressure on businesses, making it difficult for them to forecast, make pricing decisions, or adjust production plans in advance.

It also means that Vietnamese firms might have to consider contingency strategies, such as diversifying their export destinations or adjusting product lines, in order to mitigate the risks associated with over-reliance on a single market.

What steps is the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) taking to support exporters and maintain trade growth in the second half of the year?

The MoIT is pursuing a four-fold strategy to support the export sector. Firstly, we remain committed to deepening international economic integration by negotiating and expanding free trade deals. They are essential in creating new opportunities for our goods and services, reducing barriers, and offering preferential access to strategic markets.

Secondly, we are stepping up trade promotion efforts. This includes organising trade delegations, participating in international exhibitions, and connecting domestic producers with overseas distributors. These activities help enterprises take full advantage of trade deals and increase visibility in competitive markets.

Thirdly, we are focusing on guiding enterprises to maximise the use of rules of origin in their export processes. While many businesses are familiar with these regulations, a large number still lack the capacity or tools to effectively utilise them. Improved use of origin certification can enhance competitiveness, reduce tariff costs, and strengthen compliance in export markets.

Lastly, we are working on restructuring and enhancing the resilience of supply chains. This involves reviewing our import sources to ensure stable input for production and pushing for greater localisation. Over time, these efforts will lead to more transparent and sustainable supply chains that are better equipped to deal with global shocks.

In recent months, shipping costs have increased again. What are the main causes, and how is the government addressing the issue?

There are two main drivers of rising freight costs. Firstly, China has been accelerating its exports following temporary tariff adjustments with the United States, which has increased demand for shipping capacity across Asia. Secondly, the aforementioned geopolitical tensions are disrupting key routes, particularly around the Red Sea and Suez Canal, thereby driving up insurance and transportation costs.

In response, the MoIT has been coordinating with other ministries, to help businesses adopt more efficient and flexible logistics strategies. We have encouraged enterprises to explore alternative modes of transport, such as railway freight, which can be more cost-effective and less vulnerable to maritime bottlenecks.

In the long term, Vietnamese businesses must develop strategies based on risk management and operational efficiency. The lessons from the pandemic and recent global instability have demonstrated the importance of agility and forward planning in supply chain operations.

The global shipping industry is preparing for a carbon tax expected to be implemented by October. What does this mean for Vietnam’s maritime sector, and how are we responding?

The upcoming global carbon tax will pose significant challenges to Vietnam’s maritime industry. The International Maritime Organization is tightening emissions requirements, and shipping companies worldwide will be expected to reduce their carbon footprint.

Vietnamese shipping firms are facing pressure to transition to low-carbon or alternative fuels. Our maritime sector remains heavily reliant on traditional fossil fuels, which puts us at a disadvantage in terms of compliance and competitiveness.

The Vietnam Maritime Administration has already submitted a proposal outlining a roadmap for green transition in the shipping sector. This includes supporting the shift to cleaner fuel technologies and encouraging the upgrade and renewal of the national fleet to enable compatibility with such fuels.

However, this transition will require substantial investment. The government acknowledges this and is exploring financial support mechanisms to assist businesses. Such support is vital to encourage enterprises to modernise their fleets and adopt advanced propulsion systems.

With proper coordination between the state and private sector, we believe Vietnam’s maritime industry can gradually align with global environmental standards while enhancing its long-term sustainability and competitiveness.

Data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) show that Vietnam’s total import-export turnover in the first six months of the year reached an estimated $426-430 billion, up 15.5-15.8 per cent on-year. Exports accounted for $215-217 billion of that total, marking an increase of 13.8-14 per cent, while the country maintained a trade surplus of $3.4-4 billion.

These figures represent a solid over-performance compared to the government’s export scenario for the year, reaffirming Vietnam’s recovery trajectory.

One of the key growth engines was the textile and garment industry, which has shown a compelling turnaround after a prolonged slowdown. Export turnover in this sector reached $17.8 billion in the first five months, up 10 per cent on-year, signalling a global rebound in demand.

Figures from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment show that agricultural exports reached $18.3 billion in the first half of 2025, up 16.8 per cent from the same period last year. This surge was driven largely by coffee, which brought in $5.5 billion, doubling the $2.7 billion figure recorded in the same period last year and already exceeding 2024’s full-year result of $5.4 billion. This marks the first time the coffee sector has achieved such a milestone in just six months.

A prime example of the recovery is TNG Investment and Trading JSC, which has reported its strongest performance since 2021. The company’s revenue in the first half of 2025 reached approximately $163 million, a 15 per cent increase on-year, achieving half of its annual plan. June revenue alone stood at $38.8 million, double the monthly average recorded earlier in the year.

According to FPT Securities, one of the core drivers behind TNG’s strong showing is its strategic shift from the traditional cut-make-trim model to first-tier free-on-board (FOB) production. This approach allows TNG to manage its entire supply chain from raw material sourcing to manufacturing and delivery, boosting both quality control and profitability.

The company reported that 85 per cent of its revenue now comes from FOB orders, with gross margins in this segment reaching 14-18 per cent, compared to the 10-12 per cent typically seen.

However, this transformation does not come without trade-offs. Under the FOB model, companies must bear upfront working capital costs, including sourcing raw materials and handling logistics. To address this, TNG’s board recently approved borrowing up to VND1.2 trillion ($45.78 million) from BIDV’s Thai Nguyen branch to support liquidity, issue letters of credit, and facilitate trade financing.

“The industry’s recovery is no longer isolated to a few firms,” said Mai Thu Hien, deputy general director of the Planning, Finance and Enterprise Reform Department under the MoIT. “We are seeing a broader pattern of adaptation and transformation across the sector. However, we are mindful that the challenges in the global trade environment remain significant.”

Indeed, while the first-half performance is encouraging, the road ahead is less predictable. To meet the full-year export target of $451 billion, representing a 12 per cent growth rate, Vietnam needs to sustain an average of $38.67 billion in export revenue per month. The MoIT acknowledges that such performance levels are demanding under current conditions.

“Maintaining export momentum at this scale is ambitious, particularly as global trade slows and protectionist policies are intensifying in several key markets,” Hien added. “But with early scenario planning, targeted market information, and stronger public-private coordination, we are still optimistic about achieving this year’s target.”

A new wave of trade defence measures also poses a threat to exporters. In the first five months of 2025 alone, there were 10 new trade remedy investigations launched against Vietnamese goods, with four more under preliminary review. These are in addition to over 100 existing trade defence actions already requiring periodic review. Legal costs for responding to such cases can go huge, creating a heavy burden for even the most established exporters.

On the global stage, the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report, published in June, warned of a slowdown in world trade due to tariff hikes and broader economic uncertainty. It projects global trade growth of just 1.8 per cent for 2025, a steep drop from the 3.4 per centt seen in 2024, and well below historical averages. This forecast only includes tariff measures in place up to the end of May, without factoring in expected retaliatory tariffs taking effect from July 9.

The MoIT is stepping up market surveillance and policy responses. In addition to supporting enterprises with updated information on market trends and compliance, the ministry is strengthening its guidance on rules of origin and anti-fraud measures. Trade promotion activities are also being enhanced to diversify export markets and adapt to evolving buyer behaviour.

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Phan Thi Thang reiterated that free trade agreements will continue to serve as a key driver. “Vietnam’s network of such deals, especially those with major partners, offers significant leverage for export growth and investment,” she said. “Together with rising foreign investment and improved production capabilities, this foundation gives us reason to be confident in the long-term resilience of our export sector.”

Export businesses upbeat about 2025 Many firms have secured export orders for 2025, adding vibrancy to production as the year comes to a close. However, challenges ahead remain a concern.

Vietnam eyes 8 billion USD in fruit, vegetable export value in 2025 Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable sector aims to achieve 8 billion USD in export revenue in 2025, building on significant market expansion and sound growth, according to the Vietnam Fruits and Vegetables Association (VINAFRUIT).

Vietnam’s export turnover up $22 billion in first five months of 2025 Despite facing a series of challenges including trade barriers and tariffs from major markets, Vietnam’s exports made a strong recovery in the first five months of 2025, bringing in an additional $22 billion compared to the same period last year.