Following 7.5 per cent growth in the first six months and expectations of further stimulus, UOB revised its full-year GDP forecast to 7.5 per cent, up from 6.9 per cent. Vietnam’s real GDP expanded 7.96 per cent on-year in the second quarter, outpacing Bloomberg’s 6.85 per cent estimate and UOB’s own 6.1 per cent projection, bringing first-half growth to its highest level since 2011.

UOB’s September 17 report highlighted that Vietnam’s strong first-half growth was underpinned by a 14 per cent on-year export surge, boosted by improved sentiment after the US lowered its ‘Liberation Day’ tariff on April 2 to a temporary 10 per cent baseline for 90 days. Tariff uncertainty eased further in the second half as the US finalised country-specific rates ahead of the August 1 deadline, with Vietnam’s rate set at 20 per cent.

Data from July indicates that growth momentum remains positive, though the outlook is tempered by tariff developments. Exports rose 17 per cent on-year to a record $42.3 billion, bringing year-to-date growth close to 16 per cent. However, the trade surplus narrowed to $9.5 billion in the first seven months, compared to $14 billion a year earlier, due to higher imports from front-loaded export orders.

“Despite tariff pressures, annual exports could still rise by about 10 per cent (compared to 14 per cent in 2024), assuming a moderate 1–5 per cent pace for the rest of 2025,” UOB said in the report.

Other indicators also signal resilience. The Purchasing Managers’ Index rebounded to 52.4 in July after three straight months below 50, while manufacturing output rose 9 per cent on-year despite a high base. Overseas capital inflows remained strong, with $13.6 billion in realised investment as of July, up from $12.6 billion in the same period last year, suggesting full-year inflows could surpass $20 billion (compared to $25.4 billion in 2024).

Amid external headwinds, Vietnam announced a $48 billion infrastructure scheme in mid-August, spanning 250 projects. Of these, 129 state-funded initiatives worth $18 billion will prioritise urban development and transport, while 121 projects valued at $30.5 billion will draw financing from other sources, including foreign enterprises.

“Despite tariff threats and uncertainty, Vietnam’s economy continues to show resilience and dynamism. Export performance has been particularly strong, though risks remain if US demand weakens amid tariff-induced price pressures,” UOB said.

Following robust 7.5 per cent growth in the first half of 2025 and expected support from stronger government investment, UOB revised its full-year GDP forecast to 7.5 per cent, up from 6.9 per cent previously and just under 7.1 per cent in 2024. Growth is projected at 7.6 per cent on-year in the third quarter and 7.2 per cent in the fourth. For 2026, UOB maintains its projection at 7 per cent. By comparison, the government is targeting 8.3–8.5 per cent growth this year.

Inflation, however, shows little sign of easing. Headline inflation reached 3.3 per cent year-to-date in July, versus 3.6 per cent on average in 2024 and 3.26 per cent in 2023. Housing and construction materials (5.9 per cent on-year average so far, with an 18.8 per cent weighting) and healthcare (18 per cent on-year average, with a 5.4 per cent weighting) remain the main drivers.

“Combined with decent growth prospects in the second half of 2025 and persistent VND weakness, these factors would constrain the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) ability to ease policy,” UOB said, expecting the refinancing rate to remain at 4.5 per cent.

“If business and labour market conditions deteriorate sharply, there is a possibility for the SBV to cut the refinancing rate in a single step to the COVID-19 low of 4 per cent, though this is not our base case,” the report added.

Bucking the regional trend, the VND slid to a record low of 26,436 per USD in August, down 3.4 per cent year-to-date and marking its fourth straight year of depreciation. While Vietnam secured a trade deal with the US that lowered tariff rates to 20 per cent from the 46 per cent announced in April, uncertainty remains over the 40 per cent transhipment tariff.

“This could prompt firms to reassess supply chain strategies, potentially dampening Vietnam’s attractiveness for foreign investment,” UOB said.

Looking ahead, the VND may continue to underperform compared to regional peers in capturing any upside from expected US Federal Reserve rate cuts. UOB’s upward revision of Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast to 7.5 per cent in 2025, from 7.1 per cent in 2024, could lend some support. Its updated USD/VND projections are 26,300 in the fourth quarter of 2025, 26,200 in the first quarter of 2026, 26,100 in the second, and 26,000 in the third.

Citi raises forecast for Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth Citi remains cautiously optimistic on Vietnam’s growth outlook, although US tariffs on Vietnam will increase post a recently agreed trade deal.

ADB trims Vietnam’s GDP forecast to 6.3 per cent for 2025 The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 6.3 per cent from the 6.6 per cent it predicted in April.

Vietnam’s export resilience tested amid rising US tariff pressure As the United States slaps a 20 per cent countervailing tariff on Vietnamese exports, concerns loom over the policy’s implications for Vietnam’s growth trajectory. Despite mounting trade headwinds, Le Trung Hieu, deputy director general of the National Statistics Office, outlines why the country remains confident of meeting its ambitious target of over 8 per cent GDP growth in 2025.

World Bank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth to reach 6.6 per cent in 2025 Vietnam’s GDP growth is forecast to reach 6.6 per cent in 2025, according to the latest report by the World Bank.

According to the latest data from the Department of Customs, wood and wood products ranked seventh among Vietnam’s top ten export categories in the first seven months of 2025, reaching $9.65 billion, up 8.1 per cent on-year.

The United States remained Vietnam’s largest export market, accounting for $5.41 billion or 56 per cent of the total, up 10.5 per cent from the same period last year.

Experts attribute Vietnam’s strong position in the US market – now among the top three wood exporters to the country – to its cost advantages, including low labour costs and the use of 70 per cent domestically sourced materials.

However, the US administration announcement in early April of a potential 46 per cent countervailing tariff on Vietnamese goods immediately placed the wood sector among those most at risk. If implemented, this tariff would significantly erode the price competitiveness of Vietnamese wood products, pushing up costs significantly.

During the tariff negotiation phase, with businesses hopeful for a more moderate 20 per cent rate, many leading exporters ramped up production to seize a ‘golden window’, resulting in relatively strong short-term growth.

Yet, business results from the second quarter (Q2) of 2025 suggest that the anticipated recovery has not fully materialised.

In Q2 of 2025, Duc Thanh Wood Processing JSC reported a 20 per cent decline in revenue to approximately $2.84 million. Its post-tax profit, however, rose 13 per cent to nearly $680,000, mainly due to cost-cutting measures and workforce reduction.

Similarly, An Cuong Wood Working JSC saw a 6 per cent drop in revenue, down to $38.4 million, while its post-tax profit rose 17 per cent to $5.52 million, driven largely by financial gains- specifically, the sale of shares in Central Hill Estate JSC.

Meanwhile, Thuan An Wood Processing JSC posted a 19 per cent decline in revenue to 2.16 million, with post-tax profits plummeting 38 per cent to just $40,000.

In contrast, Phu Tai JSC, which operates across multiple sectors, reported strong growth with revenue reaching $77.6 million and post-tax profits reaching $5.3 million, up 18.6 per cent and 17 per cent on-year, respectively.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, export prospects appear even more uncertain. Tran Quoc Manh, vice chairman of Vietnam Handicraft Exporters Association, noted that adverse impacts are becoming visible as early as Q3, particularly in August and September.

“Most businesses are still operating but largely in a holding pattern,” Manh said. “Selling prices are falling, product ranges are narrowing, and many customers, despite having placed orders, are delaying delivery ahead of market developments. Even import partners are uncertain about the situation, which is causing transaction timelines to stretch out.”

He added that while the US market is already facing difficulties, the European market continues to shrink, increasing the pressure on Vietnamese exporters. The situation is expected to deteriorate further in Q4 as orders continue to decline.

Dang Quoc Hung, chairman and CEO of Alliance Handicraft and Wooden Fine Art Corporation, warned that the export wood market will face even greater challenges in the near future.

“Maritime freight costs have been trending upward, especially on routes to Europe and the US. However, the greater concern lies in the countervailing tariffs. Some recent shipments to the US have already encountered tax-related hurdles, and this is expected to continue affecting orders in the upcoming months. As taxes increase, companies are forced to raise prices, which reduces competitiveness and directly hits sales,” Hung explained.

Hung also pointed out a shift in buyer expectations. “Previously, exporters typically absorbed all import taxes for shipments to the US, but now clients are pushing for shared cost responsibility. This forces businesses to raise prices, impacting customers and partners directly, some of whom have already raised concerns in recent weeks.”

Despite growing instability, the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association remains optimistic that the country can still achieve its 2025 wood and wood product export target of $18 billion. However, the industry’s heavy dependence on the US market poses significant risks. Any fluctuation in American consumer demand can immediately affect Vietnam’s export revenues. As a result, regulatory bodies are encouraging firms to diversify their markets and tap into new growth areas.

Echoing this sentiment, Manh from Vietnam Handicraft Exporters Association said, “In reality, this is incredibly difficult. No market can replace the US in the short term.”

Wood industry striving to regain growth momentum Having undergone numerous hardships, businesses in the wood industry are showing great resilience with a high level of adaption and flexibility to regain their growth momentum.

Wood industry eyes positive signals in early 2025 Figures from Foreign Trade Agency under Ministry of Industry and Trade show that Vietnam’s export value of wood and wood products in the first half of January reached $738.8 million, a 15.6 per cent jump on-year.

Wood exporters wary about surging tariff pressures Wood businesses are closely monitoring market developments to swiftly craft solutions in response to volatile tariff policies on a global scale.

In its audited report released on August 30, the airline posted air transport revenue of VND35.6 trillion ($1.35 billion) and a pre-tax profit of nearly VND1.6 trillion ($60.7 million), up 37 per cent on-year. Consolidated revenue reached VND35.84 trillion ($1.36 billion) with pre-tax profit exceeding VND1.65 trillion ($62.6 million), a 65 per cent increase.

Vietjet operated 79,000 flights with 14.4 million passengers for the first six months of the year. It paid over VND4.53 trillion ($171.8 million) in taxes and fees. The company’s financial indicators remain strong, with excellent liquidity and consolidated assets exceeding VND112 trillion (approximately $4.25 billion).

For the same period, Vietjet placed an order for an additional 20 A330neo aircraft with Airbus, raising its total order to 40, making it the airline with the largest A330neo order in the world.

At the 2025 Paris Air Show, Vietjet secured a historic order for 100 A321neo aircraft, along with 50 purchase options – the largest deal in the industry – positioning Vietjet among the top 10 airlines globally in terms of aircraft orders.

Additionally, Vietjet and Rolls-Royce have signed an agreement for 40 Trent 7000 engines to power 20 wide-body Airbus A330neo aircraft, bringing the total number of Trent 7000 engines ordered by Vietjet to 80.

Vietjet also kicked off the construction of its Aircraft Maintenance Technical Centre in Long Thanh International Airport earlier this year, featuring hangars 3 and 4 which will be capable of servicing 10 aircraft simultaneously by international standards. This is a key component of the 80 initiatives celebrating Vietnam’s 80^th National Day.

Furthermore, Vietjet has rolled out self-service ground operations at major airports to enhance service quality, optimise operations, and deliver an exceptional experience for passengers.

Vietjet has also been recognised by AirlineRatings as the ‘World’s Best Ultra Low-Cost Carrier’, while Forbes Vietnam has ranked Vietjet among the Top 5 revenue-generating enterprises for 2024 and in the Top 50 best-listed companies for 2025.

With a solid financial base, a focus on fleet modernisation, and key infrastructure projects underway, Vietjet is targeting sustainable growth and wider international expansion in the second half of 2025. These efforts are expected to attract investment and support Vietnam’s position as a regional aviation hub.

Vietjet announces new managing director Vietjet Aviation JSC has announced the appointment of Nguyen Thanh Son as the company’s managing director, succeeding Dinh Viet Phuong, leading the new age carrier in the next era of development.

Vietjet outperforms targets, wins Long Thanh project bid Vietjet’s Q2 business results have surpassed expectations while marking significant milestones with substantial aircraft orders, the expansion of ground self-service operations, and winning project bids at Long Thanh International Airport.

Vietjet starts work on aircraft maintenance facility in Long Thanh Vietjet has started construction of an Aircraft Maintenance Technical Centre at Long Thanh International Airport in the southern province of Dong Nai.

Running from August 28 to September 5, the exhibition highlights Vietnam’s achievements across multiple sectors. At its 200-square-metre booth, THACO is presenting products ranging from autonomous robots and ship-to-shore cranes to auto parts and components for export. The company has also unveiled an urban train carriage model, manufactured at the THACO Chu Lai Industrial Park, for the first time.

The carriage measures 10 metres in length, 2.95 metres in width, and 3.9 metres in height, with a weight of 10 tonnes excluding bogies. Designed with 26 seats and 124 standing places, it can carry up to 150 passengers.

The train body frame is made from high-strength steel and aluminium alloy. It is manufactured on a modern production line under a closed-loop process that covers fabrication, welding, surface treatment, and finishing paint, meeting international standards EN 12663-1, EN 14067-1, and EN 14067-4 for durability, safety, and aesthetics. This strategic step paves the way for THACO to enter the railway sector, the country’s spearhead infrastructure sector.

THACO also introduced the AI navigation assistant robot TIAR-01 at the event, featuring a modern design, omnidirectional movement, and an automatic SLAM navigation system. TIAR-01 boasts smart features, such as guiding and supporting visitors, looking up information, updating news quickly, interacting for entertainment, and monitoring environmental conditions.

In parallel to this, the autonomous mobile robot AMR for transporting luggage is also equipped with SLAM navigation technology. It features flexible movement, obstacle avoidance, and real-time route calculation. Powered by a lithium battery, it operates for 6–8 hours. The robot is equipped with a 2D LIDAR sensor, bumper, 3D camera, and an emergency stop button to ensure maximum safety.

In the field of heavy machinery, THACO displayed the ship-to-shore (STS) crane model – equipment for loading and unloading container ships at international seaports. The STS cranes are 900 tonnes in weight, with a lifting capacity of 50 tonnes, a 40-metre reach, a lifting speed of 50m/minute, a hoisting speed empty of 120m/minute, and trolley speed of 150m/minute, ensuring high loading and unloading productivity.

THACO also introduced a model of the Chu Lai seaport, part of THILOGI’s integrated logistics hub combining road, seaport, and maritime transport. Positioned as a key gateway for the central region, the port facilitates trade flows linking southern Laos, northern Cambodia, and Vietnam’s Central Highlands with major markets including China, South Korea, Japan, and India.

Among the standout exhibits was a model of the KIA K3 passenger car, built with parts and components manufactured by THACO Industries, including the body frame, interior and exterior elements, power systems, electrical equipment, and refrigeration units. Mechanical components for export, produced on advanced lines imported from Germany, Japan, Switzerland, and South Korea, are already being supplied to markets such as the United States, Australia, Japan, and Finland – strengthening the reputation of Vietnamese engineering internationally.

The TACO booth has been regarded as one of the exhibition’s highlights, showcasing the company’s latest products while demonstrating its strategy of sustainable development, increased localisation, and investment in advanced technology.

The exhibition further offered a platform for THACO to present nearly 30 years of accumulated technical and technological achievements. The products on display are designed for practical use, reflecting the group’s commitment to real work and real value.

THACO lays out plans for $1 billion industrial park Truong Hai Auto Corporation (THACO) is planning to begin the construction of a mechanical industrial park in the southern province of Binh Duong worth over $1 billion in September.

THACO Group to invest over $1 billion in Binh Duong industrial park THACO Group will build a 786-hectare industrial park in Binh Duong at a cost of over $1 billion, with construction scheduled to start in September.

Italy deepens Vietnam ties as SACE backs Gelex and THACO’s growth plans SACE, the Italian insurance and finance group fully owned by the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance, together with HSBC and LBBW, has finalised two medium-long term loans totalling $139 million, guaranteed by SACE, for Gelex Group and THACO AGRI, two of Vietnam’s leading industrial players.

Amid geopolitical and global trade fluctuations, strategic minerals such as tungsten are increasingly asserting their vital role for high-tech industries.

The price of APT, the main raw material for tungsten production, is currently fluctuating around $630/MTU, which is nearly double the estimated average price of MSR in 2024 ($318/MTU) and the highest in more than 13 years.

According to securities firm VietCap, this stems from the fact that China has imposed export controls since February, causing exports to fall by about 17 per cent as of July. At the same time, the US imposed a 25 per cent tariff on some Chinese tungsten products and banned the Department of Defence from purchasing tungsten from countries such as China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

This forced US, EU, and Japanese businesses to locate alternative sources of supply from other countries, including Vietnam. Vietnam currently ranks second in the world in tungsten production with about 3,400 tonnes in 2024, accounting for nearly 22 per cent of US imports.

To seize the opportunities, MSR announced the “Back to Basics” strategy in the past year, focusing on operational optimisation, cost efficiency, and sustainable development to ensure strong margins at the mine and processing plant. MSR is pursuing the delivery of products in line with the world’s most stringent technical and environmental standards, prompting the company to increase the product value and promote tungsten recycling.

Improved business performance

In the first half of 2025, MSR generated revenue of nearly VND3 trillion ($114.67 million), up 20 per cent on-year. In the second quarter, the company achieved a revenue of VND1.6 trillion ($61.2 million), up nearly 28 per cent on-year. Its after-tax profit reached VND6 billion ($229,000), an improvement of VND400 billion ($15.3 million) from the same period last year. Its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) increased strongly to 35 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, compared with 12 per cent from a year ago.

The figures reflect the dual benefits of MSR, as the company not only benefits from the rising selling prices of APT, bismuth, and fluorspar, but also receives support from the HC Starck deconsolidation. Thus, the company can ease financial pressure while channelling its resources into strategic products.

According to VietCap, MSR is expected to contribute around 6.5 per cent of Masan Group’s operating profit in 2025. This is a notable transformation compared to previous years, when mining was considered “non-core” and recorded losses.

Golden period for mining industry

Not only benefitting from global trends, MSR stands to enjoy opportunities from local policies. In 2023, the government approved the master plan on exploration, exploitation, processing, and use of mineral resources until 2030, with a vision to 2050, with a priority on sustainable extraction and deep processing over raw exports.

In parallel, the revised Law on Geology and Mineral Resources, which took effect on July 1, aims to enhance transparency, improve the efficiency of state management, and encourage capable enterprises to participate more deeply in global supply chains.

Against this backdrop, with the Nui Phao mine and its “Back to Basics” strategy, MSR is poised to seize the best opportunities to climb the global supply chain.

Moreover, there is a rising demand for strategic minerals in the era of green technologies, creating more opportunities for MSR. The company could affirm its role in the global supply chain as a reliable alternative supplier outside China while pursuing sustainable development through higher value-added products, operational efficiency, and recycling expansion. More importantly, MSR not only makes a positive contribution to Masan Group’s consolidated earnings but also helps elevate Vietnam’s position on the global high-tech minerals map.

That said, MSR must maintain capital efficiency, optimise costs, and manage market risks amid commodity price volatility and increasingly stringent environmental requirements. This is the key factor for the company to both seize opportunities and ensure sustainable development.

The booming demand from high-tech industries, coupled with tighter global supply, is creating a “golden opportunity” for MSR. With the Nui Phao mine and a comprehensive operational strategy, MSR is entering a new growth phase.

MHT advances its ‘Back to Basics’ strategy Masan High-Tech Materials (MHT) has reaffirmed its commitment to delivering value through the execution of its ‘Back-to-Basics’ strategy.

Masan poised to lead Vietnam’s evolving consumer market Rising disposable incomes and evolving consumption patterns in Vietnam present multi-billion dollar growth potential for businesses operating closed-loop retail ecosystems.

Masan hits over 50 per cent of 2025 profit target Masan Group Corporation released its unaudited management accounts for the second quarter and first half of 2025 on July 28, highlighting a steady performance across its business segments and achieving over 50 per cent of its full-year profit target.