At a recent investor meeting, Taseco Real Estate Investment JSC (Taseco Land) said it estimates 2025 revenue at around $153 million, 2.3 times higher than the previous year, with after-tax profit approximating $24.6 million.

On that basis, the company has set targets for 2026 of $480 million in revenue and about $120 million in after-tax profit, equivalent to roughly three times and five times its 2025 performance, respectively.

In the fertiliser and chemicals sector, Petrovietnam Ca Mau Fertiliser Corporation (PVCFC) has approved its 2026 plan with consolidated revenue of around $704.6 million and consolidated after-tax profit of about $47.28 million.

Firms’ caution in crafting business plans reflects their maturity in development

The parent company is expected to post revenue of approximately $644.6 million and after-tax profit of around $46.9 million, pay a 10 per cent dividend, and allocate $29.3 million for capital expenditure and asset procurement.

Meanwhile, Vietnam Rubber Group (VRG) has chosen for a more cautious approach. After estimating 2025 consolidated revenue of around $1.28 billion and pre-tax profit of around $277.2 million, both posting double-digit growth, the group has set its 2026 plan with an increase of about 5 per cent, corresponding to revenue of approximately $1.34 billion and pre-tax profit of about $291 million.

At a smaller but still notable scale, Petroleum Packaging JSC, a member of PVCFC, has set 2026 targets of around $16.44 million and $360,000 million in after-tax profit, up 34 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively, compared with its 2025 plan.

Looking at these figures, it is clear that a growth mindset has returned across many businesses. However, behind the impressive plans lie major questions about execution capacity.

For real estate companies, sharp growth hinges heavily on legal progress, project implementation capability, and market absorption.

For industrial and agricultural enterprises, commodity price volatility, input costs, and export demand remain hard-to-predict variables. Even large groups such as VRG have chosen to set “moderate” targets to preserve safety margins amid lingering market uncertainty.

The common thread is that 2026 business planning is no longer a simple arithmetic exercise, but a careful balancing act between growth ambition, financial capacity, and risk tolerance.

One notable shift in this year’s planning season is the return of cash flow to centre stage. Many companies are willing to accept lower profit margins in exchange for faster capital turnover, inventory reduction, and less reliance on debt financing.

At the same time, pressures related to environmental, social, and governance standards and digital transformation are quietly reshaping business plan structures.

Many investments are aimed not only at scaling up operations, but also at meeting environmental standards, occupational safety requirements, and supply chain transparency- the factors that increasingly have a direct impact on access to capital and markets.

Domestically, demand is recovering but uneven across sectors, meanwhile input costs remain unpredictable. These realities are forcing companies to scrutinise every underlying assumption, from market prospects and cash flows to execution capacity.

According to a newly released forecast by Vietcombank Securities, many companies could record profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 of several tens of per cent, or even securing multiple-fold increases on-year. Bright spots span banking, securities, real estate, industrial parks, steel, energy, and retail.

Adding a broader market perspective, SSI Research estimates that Q4/2025 profits of 47 companies within its observation rose by about 20 per cent on-year, higher than the growth recorded in the first nine months of the year.

Overall, corporate profits are showing a clearer recovery trend in the final quarter of the year. However, the pronounced divergence also serves as a reminder that entering 2026, growth will no longer follow a straight line, forcing businesses to approach the new planning season with greater caution and more meticulous calculations than ever before.

Banpu reveals green business plan strategy Leading global energy provider Banpu Pcl. has kicked off its 5-year business plan to drive a greener and smarter strategy forward by leveraging technology and digital tools across the organization, accelerating the growth and transition towards green energy to embrace future trends.

Six must-have steps for your business plan now As the world begins to reactivate and reimagine itself from the impact of the pandemic, it is time to take a deep breath and assess the situation. To use a sporting analogy, we are in the tunnel ahead of what could be the biggest game of our lives. With the right strategy in place, there are great victories to be won. Without it, failure is unavoidable.

Securities firms falling short of business plans Securities firms are testifying gloomy business results in the year to date due to unfavorable market developments.

Exports have outperformed expectations and reached GDP growth targets early. How do you assess this achievement in terms of sustainability and risk?

In 2024, Vietnam’s total import-export value exceeded $786 billion, up 15.4 per cent on-year, with exports reaching $406 billion, up 14.3 per cent – an unprecedented achievement. However, this record was quickly broken.

According to data from Vietnam Customs, as of December 15, the country’s total import-export value had reached $883.7 billion, including $451.2 billion in exports – surpassing the entire 2024 figure and rising nearly 17 per cent on-year. This exceeded the target set to secure 8 per cent GDP growth, which required export growth of more than 12 per cent.

Export turnover has risen year after year over a prolonged period, with the sole exception of 2023. This sustained growth highlights Vietnam’s strengthening position and credibility in global export markets.

Vietnam has become a critically important link in the global production and trade chain. However, an economy that relies too heavily on exports faces potential risks in the future when export growth inevitably slows.

Foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) generate nearly three-quarters of export turnover. Is this dependence a structural weakness or a transitional phase?

This is a real challenge that requires addressing multiple issues.

First, like other developing economies, Vietnam has a strong demand for foreign capital and has worked to create the most attractive possible investment and business environment to draw in investment, including facilitating exports by the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector through the signing of and participation in 20 free trade agreements.

Second, the share of exports by domestic enterprises must be increased to reduce the proportion of FDI exports in total export turnover.

Third, rising exports from the FDI sector are very welcome, as they make an important contribution to Vietnam’s economy. However, the problem is that the value-added content of goods produced in Vietnam by FIEs remains low.

More precisely, Vietnam has largely served as a base for processing, assembly, packaging, and testing. Most of the raw materials, equipment, and machinery used to produce export commodities by FIEs are imported.

The only way to address this challenge is to develop supporting industries and proactively secure sources of materials and components to supply FIEs.

When supporting industries develop, the value added of goods produced in Vietnam by the FDI sector increases. In that case, rising exports also mean rising exports of domestically produced content.

Moreover, when Vietnamese firms participate deeply in global production chains, foreign businesses are more likely to commit to long-term investment in Vietnam, as their dependence on imported inputs is reduced and the risk of supply-chain disruptions is minimised.

By contrast, if activities are limited to processing and assembly, FIEs can leave at any time if other locations in the world offer more attractive investment conditions – especially lower labour costs.

If export growth slows, can the country still aim for double-digit GDP growth by focusing on higher value-added exports and expanding the trade surplus?

Export strategy needs to shift from chasing high growth rates to maximising the value added by exports produced in Vietnam.

GDP can be measured in several ways, but a widely used approach defines it as the sum of final consumption by households and government, gross capital formation, and the trade balance.

Under this framework, when exports and imports rise in tandem and the trade surplus remains modest, exports make only a limited contribution to overall GDP growth.

For example, as of December 15, Vietnam’s trade balance recorded a surplus of $18.64 billion, while imports reached $432.54 billion, up 19.4 per cent on-year. If import turnover – particularly raw materials and fuels, which account for 41 per cent – could be reduced, the trade surplus could increase by several tens of billions of dollars, significantly boosting GDP growth.

Therefore, shifting the focus from quantity to quality in exports is essential. Even if export turnover grows more slowly, or does not grow at all, an increase in the value-added content produced in Vietnam combined with a large trade surplus would allow exports to make a substantial contribution to GDP growth.

How can Vietnam enhance the value and competitiveness of its exports in the years ahead?

Textiles and footwear, for example, make a major contribution to the country’s export turnover. However, if Vietnam limits itself to producing basic apparel, hats, and standard footwear, its export competitiveness will continue to erode, as domestic labour costs have been on the rise.

Therefore, instead of mass-market products, firms should focus on goods made from silk, lotus fibre, and other natural fabrics that are environmentally friendly, higher in value, and better aligned with consumption trends in developed markets.

Encouragingly, Resolution No.68-NQ/TW requires the government to promptly develop and refine the legal framework as well as introduce innovative policies that encourage investment in R&D.

It allows enterprises to allocate up to 20 per cent of taxable corporate income to establish funds for science and technology development, innovation, digital transformation, and R&D.

Meanwhile, Resolution No.57-NQ/TW on breakthroughs in the development of sci-tech, innovation, and national digital transformation sets out a series of incentive and preferential mechanisms for R&D activities.

It firmly mandates R&D expenditure at 2 per cent of GDP, allocates at least 3 per cent of total annual state budget spending to sci-tech development, innovation, and national digital transformation, and calls for a gradual increase in line with development needs.

As Vietnam enters a new era with aspirations to rise, prosper, and achieve greater national strength – expressed through setting a double-digit GDP growth target in 2026 and beyond – the country has sufficient grounds to prioritise economic expansion, provided that macroeconomic stability is maintained, inflation is kept under control, and the major balances of the economy are safeguarded.

Businesses set ambitious double-digit growth targets Ongoing economic recovery continues to serve as a driving force, enabling businesses from various sectors to accelerate growth, with many firms are setting business plans with double-digit growth targets.

Hanoi maintains strong tourism momentum with double-digit growth in July Hanoi Department of Tourism has reported a robust performance in July, with the capital welcoming approximately 2.8 million visitors, up 10.3 per cent on-year.

Driving double-digit growth through green and circular transformation in Vietnam The circular economy has been identified as a strategic pillar of Vietnam’s new green growth model. At the same time, it is considered as a strategic key enabling Vietnam to seize opportunities for breakthrough development.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), export turnover exceeded $11.3 billion in 2025, up 13 per cent on year. Shrimp remained the largest export earner at $4.65 billion, rising 20 per cent from 2024, while lobster exports more than doubled to $817 million, reflecting strong demand across major markets.

Photo: Hoang Oanh

Basa fish ranked second, with exports reaching $2.19 billion, an 8 per cent rise. Other marine fish took in $2.16 billion, up 12 per cent, supported by diversified markets. By contrast, tuna exports declined due to prolonged raw material shortages and tighter regulations related to illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing.

Exports to the United States reached nearly $1.9 billion in 2025, up just 3 per cent amid policy uncertainty, tariff risks, and technical barriers. Growth elsewhere helped offset the slowdown, with China (including Hong Kong), the EU, and markets under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) emerging as key drivers.

Exports to CPTPP markets and the EU both posted double-digit growth, reaching more than $3 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively. China (including Hong Kong) recorded the strongest increase, up 29 per cent to $2.45 billion, driven by demand for live lobster, crab, shellfish, and clams.

VASEP attributed the sector’s performance to exporter flexibility and effective market timing amid global volatility. A tightening global supply following a period of low prices also helped lift demand.

Looking ahead to 2026, VASEP cautioned that market conditions remain uncertain. US trade policies and technical barriers may continue to prompt exporters worldwide to diversify markets, intensifying competition in the EU, China, ASEAN, and the Middle East. The unresolved IUU yellow card remains a key constraint on access to Western markets.

For basa fish, analysis by Mirae Asset Securities forecasts improved consumption in the United States and stable demand in China. Exports to the EU and Brazil are expected to remain steady in 2026, though competition may intensify as global exporters gradually shift away from the US market.

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GELEX is the first enterprise to receive an outlook upgrade from VIS Rating in the 2025 rating cycle, issued on January 6, and among the rare cases to achieve such an improvement within less than one year. This reflects the group’s above-average pace of improvement in financial quality and operating performance, at a time when credit assessment standards are becoming increasingly stringent. The upgrade also recognises GELEX’s governance capability, adaptability, and potential for further rating improvement in the medium term.

VIS Rating has upgraded GELEX’s long-term A rating outlook from “Stable” to “Positive”

The maintained A rating, together with the upgraded outlook, reflects expectations that GELEX’s revenue and operating cash flows will continue to strengthen over the next 12-18 months, supported by the solid fundamentals of its core businesses in electrical equipment and building materials.

From 2024 through the first nine months of 2025, GELEX recorded nearly 15 per cent revenue growth, significantly exceeding the average growth rate from 2021-2023. The group’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) margin improved to approximately 23 per cent, indicating continued enhancements in operating efficiency and cost management at the consolidated level.

The electrical equipment segment remains the primary growth driver for GELEX. Through market expansion, new product development, and optimisation of its manufacturing value chain, the group has significantly increased its industry market share.

In particular, CADIVI, GELEX’s key subsidiary in power cables, expanded its presence in northern Vietnam from early 2024, contributing to a higher nationwide market share in the power cable segment. Supported by scale expansion and improved production efficiency, the EBITDA margin of the electrical equipment segment increased sharply from around 13 per cent to over 20 per cent in the first nine months of 2025.

The electrical equipment business continues to be the main contributor to GELEX’s revenue and profit growth

VIS Rating expects this segment to maintain stable growth momentum, supported by strong demand for electrical products amid robust public and private investment in power infrastructure nationwide.

For GELEX Infrastructure, profitability in the building materials segment is expected to improve, driven by the recovery of the real estate market, easing competition in the construction glass segment following Vietnam’s initiation of anti-dumping investigations on certain imported products in July 2025, and the restructuring of sales channels at several subsidiaries.

The utilities segment, with EBITDA margins exceeding 70 per cent, is forecast to further strengthen the group’s overall growth following the completion of a plan to double water treatment capacity in the first quarter of 2026.

Strong demand for industrial infrastructure is expected to support leasing activities and cash flows in the industrial real estate segment. GELEX Infrastructure plans to commence sales of a new residential real estate project in Haiphong, developed in cooperation with Frasers Property (Singapore), including both low-rise and high-rise components, in Q1.

GELEX subsidiaries also plan to expand residential land banks and develop additional new projects. From 2026-2027, GELEX is expected to achieve average annual revenue growth of approximately 14 per cent, while maintaining an EBITDA margin of around 20 per cent.

Artist’s impression of the ANmaison project in Haiphong

VIS Rating notes that GELEX’s profitability and operating cash flow (CFO) remain strong, providing a solid foundation for maintaining stable financial safety indicators. Specifically, the EBIT-to-interest coverage ratio stands at approximately 4.5-5.0 times, while the CFO-to-debt ratio has been maintained at 15-20 per cent.

These metrics indicate that GELEX has adequate financial headroom to implement its medium- and long-term investment plans, while maintaining effective control over leverage and liquidity risks amid ongoing volatility in the financial environment.

According to VIS Rating, GELEX’s credit rating could be upgraded in the medium term if the group continues to sustain EBITDA margins above 20 per cent, maintains a CFO-to-debt ratio above 20 per cent, and adheres to a prudent investment strategy with limited reliance on excessive borrowing.

Conversely, overly rapid investment expansion or delays in the implementation of key projects could place pressure on cash flows and liquidity, potentially affecting the group’s rating outlook in the future.

The affirmation of GELEX’s A credit rating and the upgrade of its outlook to “Positive” provide clear evidence of the group’s credit strength, financial governance capability, and sustainable business foundation. This result not only reinforces the confidence of investors and credit institutions, but also gives GELEX a significant advantage in accessing long-term capital at more competitive costs, supporting the realisation of its sustainable growth strategy.

VIS Rating is an independent credit rating agency in Vietnam, licensed by the Ministry of Finance since September 2023, established through cooperation with Moody’s and other partners under a Vietnam Bond Market Association initiative. VIS Rating provides credit risk and financial capacity assessments for domestic enterprises.

GELEX Infrastructure secures $40 million SACE Push loan for facility HSBC and the Italian Export Credit Agency have agreed a loan of $40 million for GELEX Infrastructure JSC.

GELEX completes international financing transaction worth $79 million GELEX Group announced the completion of a loan facility guaranteed by the Italian Export Credit Agency (SACE) with a total value of $79 million on May 29.

FPT and GELEX sign deal to develop blockchain tech for global markets FPT Corporation and GELEX Group signed an agreement on the development of blockchain technology in Hanoi on December 25.

In the third quarter of 2025, Shopee remained the market leader with a 56 per cent share, but sales growth slowed to 4 per cent on-year, signalling saturation amid rising competition and costs.

TikTok Shop is rapidly closing the gap, posting 69 per cent growth and expanding market share from 30 per cent to 41 per cent, driven by its livestream and short-video “shoppertainment” model.

Lazada held a stable 3 per cent share, while Tiki continued to lose ground, with sales down to 80 per cent.

In the first half of 2025, TikTok Shop saw explosive seller growth of 96 per cent to 267,000, while other platforms declined sharply, with Shopee down 32 per cent to 210,000, losing roughly a third of its active sellers. TikTok Shop’s average transaction value per product rose 10 per cent on-year to approximately VND130,000 ($4.95), signalling a shift beyond low-priced, trend-driven goods towards higher-quality brands, while Shopee’s fell 7.2 per cent to VND107,000 ($4.07), reinforcing its value-for-deals positioning.

In the third quarter of 2025, top-grossing categories were beauty (VND17.7 trillion or $673.4 million), home and living (VND13.8 trillion or $525 million), and women’s fashion (VND12.1 trillion or $460.4 million).

Shoppertainment became the “new industry benchmark”. Following TikTok’s dominance, other platforms have adopted livestreaming and short-video selling. Brands are also expanding sales channels accordingly. Nina Live Hub, a vibrant livestream solution provider, now offers end-to-end services and has expanded into a full ecosystem with Nina Ecom Centre, covering creator training, creator network management, storefront operations, and revenue management across e-commerce platforms.

Effective July 1, 2025, e-commerce platforms are required to withhold VAT and personal income tax (PIT) on sales made through their sites. Platforms must collect 1 per cent VAT and 0.5 per cent PIT on revenue from goods sold by domestic individuals and household businesses.

This mechanism effectively turns platforms into tax collectors, formalising the income of thousands of micro-entrepreneurs and reducing the ability for sellers to operate informally. This also increases operational complexity and compliance costs from upgrading billing systems, seller classification, reporting and reconciliation.

The report shows the rollout of new e-commerce regulations is expected to formalise the market and improve transparency, while increasing compliance burdens, especially for sellers operating through social commerce channels

Market success will increasingly depend on government and private-sector investment in e-commerce enablers and cross-border logistics, enabling small- and medium-sized enterprises to meet international quality and sustainability standards and scale Vietnam’s digital export potential.

Larger platforms and well-capitalised direct-to-consumer brands are likely to use AI to boost productivity and reduce costs by 10-30 per cent, while smaller players that lag in AI adoption may struggle to remain competitive on cost and operational efficiency.

Vietnam’s retail market tops $269 billion in 2025 amid e-commerce boom Vietnam’s retail market recorded a five-year high in revenue, reaching $269 billion in 2025, according to the Vietnam Domestic Market Report 2025 released by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

Vietnam emerges as Southeast Asia’s cross-border e-commerce hub Vietnam is rapidly emerging as a regional powerhouse in cross-border e-commerce, driven by strategic initiatives from global players and backed by supportive government policies.

Vietnam’s digital economy to touch $39 billion in 2025 Vietnam’s digital economy will reach $39 billion by the end of 2025, with double-digit growth across all sectors, according to the e-Conomy SEA 2025 report by Google, Temasek, and Bain & Company.